New NJ congressional district lines give Kean edge over Malinowski, publication says
Republican State Senate Leader Tom Kean Jr. is now favored to oust Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in 2022 and New Jersey’s new congressional district boundaries are the reason, according to Cook’s political report.
Malinowski beat Kean in 2020 by just 1 percentage point in a district that won President Joe Biden by 10 points. The new district would have backed Biden by 4 points, a bigger difference than Malinowski’s margin in 2020. Cook called the new district “leaning Republican.”
“Not only is the political environment worse for Democrats, but the district is 6 points worse,” said David Wasserman, who tracks home races for the Washington-based publication. “Kean is the favorite for 2022.”
While the lines drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission made Malinowski’s 7th District less hospitable to him, they strengthened three other potentially endangered House Democrats: 3rd Dist. Rep. Andy Kim, 5th Dist. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th Dist. Representative Mikie Sherrill. That would at least solidify a 9-3 Democratic advantage in a delegation that was evenly split, 6-6, a decade ago.
Gottheimer is the only one of the three who could face a tough challenge next year if Republicans can recruit a strong, well-funded candidate, according to Cook.
At this point, two years ago, Cook listed Kim, Malinowski and Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-2nd Dist., as endangered, and possibly Gottheimer and Sherrill. Only Malinowski and Van Drew have drawn strong opposition, and Van Drew’s district has been redrawn this year to make him a stronger bet for re-election in 2022.
Kean’s campaign manager Dan Scharfenberger said the new lines reflected Malinowski’s weak re-election prospects.
“Democrats on redistricting called him a loser, now analysts are calling him a loser,” Scharfenberger said. “Nevertheless, Tom Malinowski defers to an unethical and selfish DC insider every step of the way. He shouldn’t expect a better rating from voters in that riding.
Malinowski, who entered October with $2.1 million in the bank for Kean’s $648,007, acknowledged the hostile news lines in a recent fundraising email.
“The bottom line is that redistricting didn’t make it any easier for us,” he wrote. “But as all of you know, I’ve only won tough races. And my likely opponent, Tom Kean Jr., never lost them – for good reason.
In the fundraising email, Malinowski also made an argument to appeal to voters who backed Biden for president and Kean for Congress.
“We can definitely say that our run will be the only true wild card in New Jersey in 2022 — the single run most likely to decide House control,” Malinowski said. “The stakes have never been higher.”
And Wasserman said electoral trends could eventually make the district more Democratic. “Malinowski might have a chance later in the decade,” he said.
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Jonathan D. Salant can be attached to jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on @JDSalant.
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